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Ember analysed the latest monthly solar capacity data for 15 countries, accounting for 80% of solar installations in . Capacity additions in these countries increased by 29% in January to July this year, compared to the same period last year. If this 29% growth rate continues until the end of this year, they will install 478 GW.

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For the remaining countries, this report uses exports of solar panels from China up to July to estimate what will be installed throughout . This analysis suggests that 115 GW (with a range of 81-149 GW) of solar capacity will be installed in the rest of the world in . That is a rise of 29% compared to and reflects high additions from new markets such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

Widespread solar growth is on display around the world

11 of the 15 countries for which Ember is tracking monthly capacity data are showing a larger number of installations this year than the year before.

In China, the country with the largest solar fleet, solar additions for January-July were 28% higher than in the same period in . Meanwhile, solar capacity installations in India in the first seven months of are 77% higher than in the same period in . In the US, new solar additions in January-June are 55% higher than in January-June .

Capacity data from European countries showed continued growth in solar installations, albeit at a more modest pace than in previous years for some countries. In Italy, the EU’s third largest solar market in , installations are up by 41% in the January-July period. Germany and the United Kingdom are showing more modest market growth of 11% for the same period, compared to January-July . Portugal has installed twice as many solar panels in the first seven months of the year as it did in the same period in , but in absolute terms it is still a small market compared to other countries that Ember tracks. Although Poland showed lower installations in January-June than in the same period in , they were still four times higher than in the first half of .

China continues to install more than half of the world’s solar power in

At the current rate of capacity additions, China is on track to add 28% more solar capacity than in the previous year. If this rate of additions is sustained, it would lead to a total installed capacity of 334 GW, making up 56% of global capacity additions for .

This rate of growth is only slightly below the rest of the world, meaning China’s share of global installations for is estimated to be similar to last year when it accounted for 57% of global installations. Last year marked a significant change in China’s solar power deployment. It installed more in than the entire world did in . In and , its share of global additions was smaller, at 42% and 34% respectively.

China’s solar installations from January to June surpassed the country’s total solar additions in . This rapid expansion has enabled the country to surpass its wind and solar capacity targets six years early. Growth in the US is mainly driven by significant additions of utility-scale solar capacity, which made up over 80% of additions in the first six months of . Solar installations totalled 20 GW from January to June , a 55% increase over the same period last year. This follows a 46% increase in installations in compared to .

By May , India had already installed more solar panels than it did in the whole of . Last year saw a lower number of installations amid uncertainty around government rules on solar manufacturing. Installations skyrocketed in March this year, before new policy changes came into place which mandated that solar modules used in government-backed projects have to be sourced from an Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM). However, growth since then has remained steady, and by July the country had installed 18 GW of solar capacity, equalling its all-time record for annual solar panel installations from . At the current pace of additions, India is on track to install 23 GW by the end of , up 77% compared to .

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In Germany, reforms to reduce bureaucracy and boost incentives for rooftop solar installations have led to significant solar capacity additions continuing into after had seen a large increase compared to prior years. The 5 GW of solar capacity that was added in the first four months of this year meant that the country had already exceeded its previous target to reach 88 GW of total solar capacity by the end of the year. This pace has continued up to July , and if sustained to the end of the year would result in Germany installing 17 GW of solar capacity in . This is consistent with the pace required to meet their new NECP target of 128 GW total capacity in .

So far in , additions in Brazil have been matching the fast pace of installations seen in . Installations are again on track to reach more than 16 GW by the end of the year – more than double the additions recorded in .

Both China and the United States consistently report a large proportion of installations in December. This highlights some of the uncertainty around the forecasts for these countries – and indeed the global forecast. Historically, around 23% of annual installations were reported in the final month for both countries in and .

Solar export data points to strong growth in new markets

Although not all countries publish monthly updates on solar capacity, other indicators show signs of even faster growth outside of the countries mentioned above. Based on data on Chinese solar exports collated by Ember, we estimate additions of 115 GW (81-149 GW) in these countries. Export data suggests that new solar markets are rapidly emerging.

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have seen average monthly imports of solar panels soar to more than 1 GW. In the first seven months of , Pakistan imported 12.5 GW of solar panels, while Saudi Arabia imported 9.7 GW. If these panels are installed, it could put the two countries firmly in the company of established, large solar markets, like Germany, Brazil and India.

There is also a recent pick-up observed in the Philippines, the UAE, Thailand and Oman. Exports to South Africa have recently picked up again after they dropped in the middle of .

Even forecasts made by industry analysts in still have strikingly differing predictions for how solar power will grow this year. Reviewing solar outlooks from prominent organisations made in shows a range of almost 240 GW between the highest (592, BNEF main case Q3 ) and lowest (353 GW, Wood Mackenzie January ) forecasts. In January , Wood Mackenzie reported that ‘starting in , the industry is officially past the inflection point, characterized by a slower growth pattern’, forecasting that annual capacity additions would remain constant for the rest of the decade. In contrast, BNEF predicted in February that solar additions would rise to 574 GW in – 29% higher than the additions of 444 GW BNEF estimated for . Their forecast has since been revised even higher to 592 GW for .

How much does solar grow after ?

The massive step up in solar capacity installations in and has shifted perceptions around solar’s role in the energy transition. Solar will likely add more GWs in than the entire global increase in coal power capacity since (540 GW). Just how fast solar deployment has accelerated is further highlighted by the fact that differences between predictions of annual installations are now larger than total solar installations were just a few years prior.

This now puts ambitious climate pledges within reach. Beyond , outlooks for the rest of the decade from BNEF and SolarPower Europe are now aligned with the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, which aims to triple renewable power capacity by . Achieving this would mean that solar power generates a quarter of the world’s electricity by the end of the decade. Under this scenario, solar shows the fastest growth, with expectations that it needs to quintuple to reach GW by . After the high levels of additions in the last two years, annual solar installations would only have to show relatively modest levels of growth to meet this. BNEF forecasts average growth of 6% per year from to . They reported 76% growth in and are expecting 33% in .

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